U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds brought in $137.3 million on Wednesday, October 28, marking three consecutive days of net inflows, even as the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates between 3.75% and 4% with two officials dissenting in favor of a rate hike. This capital influx failed to sustain Bitcoin’s price elevation for long. Initially climbing to $81,788 following the announcement, BTC subsequently dropped to $79,710 overnight as a broader selloff in chip stocks spilled over into the cryptocurrency market.
At present, BTC changes hands at $79,899, reflecting a 2.4% decline over 24 hours and a 4.4% drop for October, putting the month on course for its second consecutive negative October. For market participants tracking Bitcoin developments heading into November, the schedule is packed with upcoming events: the midterm elections, new employment and inflation metrics, and a December rate increase currently assigned a 79% probability by prediction markets.
How do the recent ETF figures, the central bank’s actions, and November’s historical data align?
The Fed holds steady.
The decision is 10-2.
Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted for an increase. pic.twitter.com/nUKDM6n8Zp
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) October 28, 2026
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Bitcoin News: How Much Have Bitcoin ETFs Taken In This Week?
The total reached roughly $424 million across three sessions. Daily metrics from SoSoValue indicate that almost the entirety of these funds went to BlackRock:
- Monday, October 26: $110.3 million, directed entirely into BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).
- Tuesday, October 27: $176.0 million, with none of the 12 participating funds experiencing net outflows.
- Wednesday, October 28: $137.3 million, with $136.0 million allocated to IBIT and $1.3 million to Bitwise’s BITB.
This accumulation follows a difficult period. On October 22, these products suffered $635.6 million in single-day net outflows—their largest redemption volume since June—with both IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC shedding more than $200 million apiece. As of Monday, October overall remained roughly $202 million in negative territory; however, the subsequent two sessions pushed the monthly tally slightly positive by approximately $110 million.
Collectively, the 12 funds manage $104.9 billion, representing about 6.4% of all Bitcoin by market value, and have accumulated a cumulative net total of $57.6 billion since their January 2024 debut. IBIT on its own accounts for $66.1 billion of that total.
What Did the Fed Decide, and How Did Bitcoin React?
The central bank opted to hold rates steady, though not unanimously. The 10–2 vote featured dissents from Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, both favoring a 25-basis-point increase. The accompanying statement described the economy as “expanding at a strong pace” while inflation remains too elevated, leaving future actions dependent on “the accumulation of more information.”
Chairman Kevin Warsh offered no signals regarding a December move, telling journalists, “I don’t believe in forward guidance, absent exigent circumstances, absent a crisis,” and asserting that political considerations “played no role” merely six days prior to the midterms. Traders interpreted the dissenting votes as a tilt toward monetary tightening. On Polymarket, the contract for a December rate hike stayed at 77%, near its pre-meeting level.
Bitcoin initially absorbed the policy announcement calmly, trading at $80,860 at 2 p.m. ET and gaining 1.1% to reach $81,788 over the ensuing two hours. The downward correction materialized later during Asian trading hours after Samsung’s semiconductor division reported results missing analyst forecasts, causing its stock to drop over 5% and dragging down broader technology equities.
BTC retreated to $79,710 by 02:00 UTC, contributing to more than $350 million in leveraged crypto long and short positions being liquidated over a 24-hour window.
Bitcoin News for November: What Should Traders Expect?
A series of economic releases will determine whether a December rate adjustment occurs. Key dates on the calendar include:
- Thursday, October 29: September personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation and third-quarter GDP figures due at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by earnings reports from Coinbase and Strategy after market close.
- Friday, October 30: Deribit’s monthly options expiration involving approximately 135,700 BTC, valued at roughly $10.8 billion in open contracts.
- Tuesday, November 3: The U.S. midterm elections.
- Friday, November 6: The October employment report, following the addition of 29,000 jobs in September.
- Tuesday, November 10: October consumer price index (CPI) data, scheduled according to the BLS release timeline. September’s CPI showed a 3.7% year-over-year increase.
- December 9: The next scheduled Federal Reserve rate decision.
November’s historical reputation as a strong month for Bitcoin relies heavily on a limited number of instances. On Binance, BTC posted gains in only three of the past eight Novembers. Significant advances—such as 42.8% in 2020 and 37.2% in 2024—both occurred immediately following U.S. presidential elections. Conversely, the midterm election years of 2018 and 2022 finished November with losses of 36.6% and 16.2%, respectively.
Bitcoin’s November returns since 2018. Source: Binance
An eight-year timeframe represents a modest sample size, and both midterm Novembers transpired within broader bear markets. Options market participants are similarly refraining from pricing in aggressive directional bets. Deribit’s DVOL index, measuring 30-day implied volatility for Bitcoin options, registered 36.5 on Wednesday, remaining just below the 37 to 39 range maintained across the prior two weeks.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Hold $79,221 Into November?
Current price action is testing this specific region. BTC is changing hands at $79,899 on Binance, sitting below its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $80,789—a threshold breached three times over the past week. The low of $79,221 recorded on October 24 serves as the primary support level that has held up thus far.
The yearly outlook demonstrates more stability than the weekly timeframe. The 200-day EMA has ascended from roughly $72,300 in late August to $76,476, while the 50-day EMA crossed above it on September 12 for the first crossover since dropping below that moving average in November 2025.
- Resistance: $84,898, representing the October 21 peak where the most recent upward momentum stalled.
- Support: $79,221, corresponding to the October 24 low. Further support lies between $76,264 and $76,476, encompassing the September 2 low and the 200-day EMA.
BTCUSDT Chart 1D TradingView
| Outlook | Trigger | Level to watch |
|---|---|---|
| Rebound | A daily close back above the 50-day EMA at $80,789 | $84,898, the October 21 high |
| Holding pattern | Holding between $79,221 and $84,898 | More sideways trade around the 50-day EMA |
| Sell-off | A daily close below $79,221 | $76,264 to $76,476, the September 2 low and the 200-day EMA |
Although ETF inflows resumed this week, the Fed’s undecided stance on December policy leaves valuations vulnerable to movements in the technology sector. For immediate Bitcoin updates, market participants are looking toward the PCE inflation release and the upcoming November 6 employment figures.
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