Bitcoin Whale Dumps $35M on Coinbase at $15M Loss Amid October Slump

An Arkham Intelligence-tracked Bitcoin whale transferred 438.37 BTC—valued at $35.38 million—to Coinbase Prime early on October 28. This move came 16 months after the investor originally withdrew 615.4 BTC from the exact same custody service at an average purchase price of $105,271. This transaction adds to ongoing Bitcoin news regarding large holders shifting coins to exchanges, resulting in a realized paper loss of roughly $15 million.

This development serves as a fitting conclusion to a month that had initially earned the moniker “Uptober.” With only three days remaining, Bitcoin changes hands at $81,445, marking a 2.2% gain over the past 24 hours but a 2.5% decline since October 1.

As a result, market observers are asking whether whales are truly heading for the exits, and which upcoming dates will dictate the direction of Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin Whale: $35M to Coinbase Prime

Whale bc1q9 deposited 438.37 BTC ($35.38M) overnight, 16 months after withdrawing 615.4 BTC from Coinbase Prime Custody at an average price of $105,271.

BTC is $80,807. He's down over $15M on the stack and still holds $14.31M. pic.twitter.com/ASH6nopd0x

— Arkham (@arkham) October 28, 2026

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Bitcoin News: Are Whales Sending BTC to Exchanges?

While this specific whale is moving funds, broader exchange flows present a mixed picture. The wallet address bc1q9kaa…l77q had remained inactive since June 24, 2025, when it initially acquired 615.4 BTC from Coinbase Prime Custody. On October 28 at 00:48 UTC, it forwarded 438.37 BTC to a Coinbase Prime deposit address while retaining the remaining 177.03 BTC, a balance still verified by the blockchain.

Although an exchange deposit is typically interpreted as a precursor to selling, the investor has not publicly disclosed the motivation behind the transfer. Furthermore, Coinbase Prime caters to institutional clients who frequently utilize the service to hedge positions or secure loans against their holdings.

Conversely, the wider market moved in the opposite direction on Tuesday. Preliminary metrics from CryptoQuant indicated that a net total of 12,570 BTC—equivalent to roughly $1.01 billion—withdrew from exchanges on October 27, immediately following a net inflow exceeding 7,000 BTC the day prior.

Analyst Darkfost pointed out that on Binance, the 30-day moving average for whale deposits has dropped from $5.9 billion in late August to $3.8 billion, whereas retail deposits have steadily climbed since September.

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October has proved lackluster enough to threaten a historical seasonal trend. Trading on Binance opened the month at $83,624, briefly peaked at $87,220 on October 2, and subsequently lost momentum to dip as low as $79,221 on October 24.

To conclude the month in positive territory, Bitcoin must achieve a daily close above $83,624 by Saturday, requiring an increase of approximately 2.7% from current levels. Failing to do so would result in 2026 recording back-to-back losing Octobers for the first time in over a decade, following October 2025’s 3.9% decline on Binance.

Prior to 2025, Bitcoin had only experienced red Octobers in 2014 and 2018 since 2013.

What Events Could Move Bitcoin’s Price Next?

The Federal Reserve takes center stage today, representing the primary catalyst anticipated by cryptocurrency traders. Over the subsequent five weeks, the market will also navigate an options expiry, the monthly close, the U.S. midterm elections, and an impending Fed meeting where market participants already lean toward a rate hike.

• Fed decision, October 28: The official policy statement releases at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. Following a 25 basis-point increase in September that brought rates to 3.75%–4.00%, Polymarket prediction markets price a policy pause at 95% odds.
• PCE and earnings, October 29: September’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report follows a hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading of 3.7%. Additionally, Coinbase and Strategy release their third-quarter financial results after the U.S. market close.
• Options expiry, October 30: Monthly Bitcoin options on Deribit settle at 08:00 UTC. Open interest for this expiration sits at 135,452 BTC—worth roughly $11.04 billion and accounting for 34.4% of Deribit’s total volume—with a put-call ratio of 0.53 and a maximum pain point of $78,000, the strike price where option buyers face the greatest losses.
• Midterms, November 3: Control of the U.S. Congress is on the ballot, directly impacting the legislative timeline and regulatory pace for the crypto industry.
• Fed, December 9: Polymarket forecasts a 76.5% probability of a rate hike in December.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Get Back to $83,624 Before the Month Ends?

The technical room for recovery exists, but the necessary momentum is currently lacking. Bitcoin hovers just above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $80,833 after rebounding from the $79,221 low recorded on Saturday, with the 200-day EMA situated much lower at $76,443.

• The line for October: $83,624, representing the monthly open. A close above this threshold turns the monthly performance green.
• Resistance: $84,898, marking the October 21 peak that initiated the prior week’s downward trend.
• Support: $79,221, corresponding to the October 24 low that successfully defended against three subsequent sell-offs during the week.

Outlook	Trigger	Level to watch
Rebound	A daily close above $83,624	$84,898, the October 21 high
Holding pattern	Holding between $79,221 and $83,624	A red October close above the 50-day EMA at $80,833
Sell-off	A daily close below $79,221	$76,443, the 200-day EMA

A single whale deposit will not single-handedly dictate the monthly candle. Instead, Chair Warsh’s commentary this afternoon will likely prove decisive. A hawkish press conference pushing Bitcoin back toward Friday’s $78,000 max pain level would nearly guarantee a second consecutive red October, whereas a more measured tone keeps the $83,624 target attainable.

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