Most CPI Cool-Downs Spark Hourly Bitcoin Gains Amid Downtrend

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the October consumer price index (CPI) report on Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. New York time (13:30 UTC). How Bitcoin reacts to this data could determine the market’s trajectory for the week. As the primary US inflation gauge, the CPI will directly influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy decision.

Projections from economists suggest that core prices—excluding volatile food and energy items—increased by approximately 0.22% over the course of the month, representing a cooling trend compared to September’s 0.33% gain.

Economists expect growth in the core CPI to have moderated in October to around 0.22%, though the full range of estimates is broad enough to round down to 0.1% or round up to 0.3%.

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Due to the government shutdown in Oct 2025, there's no tidy year-earlier figure. pic.twitter.com/CFM7ikw8fO

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) November 9, 2026

At present, Bitcoin is changing hands near $74,400, hovering not far from Sunday’s two-month low of $73,510.

Historically, release days for the CPI drive significant volatility across the cryptocurrency sector. An analysis of Bitcoin’s price action during the first hour following the previous 24 reports reveals that when core inflation printed at 0.2% or lower, BTC posted hourly gains in 10 out of 13 instances. Conversely, when the figure reached 0.3% or higher, the cryptocurrency advanced in only 4 out of 10 cases.

The crucial question is which direction today’s figures will steer Bitcoin.

Economists Expect Inflation to Cool, but the Range Is Wide

Forecasts point toward a moderation in price pressures. A survey of 17 financial institutions and research groups conducted by The Wall Street Journal points to a median monthly increase of 0.25% for headline CPI and 0.22% for core inflation, figures that were shared on X by Journal reporter Nick Timiraos.

• Headline CPI: Projections span from Nomura’s estimate of 0.14% up to Pinebrook Capital’s 0.29%, contrasting with September’s 0.65% increase.
• Core CPI: Estimates range between Nomura’s 0.13% and BNP Paribas and Pinebrook’s 0.28%, compared to September’s 0.33%.
• Yearly rate: The BLS reported September’s annual inflation rate at 3.7% for headline figures and 2.6% for core metrics.

This wide distribution of estimates is significant because the government rounds CPI data to a single decimal place. Given the divergence in forecasts, the actual core reading could land anywhere from 0.1% to 0.3%. A print of 0.3% would equal September’s rate, signaling persistent inflation that fails to cool.

Furthermore, annual comparisons will be complicated. Due to a government shutdown in October 2025, no official CPI data was published for that month, leaving analysts without a clean year-over-year baseline.

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Today’s Report Is the Last CPI Before a Likely Fed Hike

This release marks the final inflation report the Federal Reserve will review ahead of its December 8-9 policy meeting. Market participants are already pricing in a potential rate increase; as of Tuesday morning, Polymarket data indicates an 86.5% probability of a 0.25-point rate hike and an 11.5% chance that rates will remain unchanged.

Higher interest rates typically create headwinds for Bitcoin by increasing the yields on cash and fixed-income instruments, thereby drawing capital away from non-yielding alternative assets like digital currencies.

A softer inflation reading could diminish these rate hike expectations and provide Bitcoin with the momentum needed for a recovery rally, whereas a hotter-than-expected print would likely cement the likelihood of a rate increase.

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The Bitcoin CPI Reaction: Cool Prints Usually Lift BTC Within the Hour

An examination of Binance price data tracking the 24 CPI reports published since October 2024 highlights how Bitcoin behaves immediately following each 8:30 a.m. ET release.

• Bigger swings: The median price range between Bitcoin’s high and low during that initial hour stood at 1.17%, nearly double the 0.62% average observed during the same hour on normal weekdays.
• Core at 0.2% or lower, 13 reports: BTC advanced during the first hour 10 times, posting an average gain of 0.45%.
• Core at 0.3% or higher, 10 reports: BTC moved higher in just 4 instances, registering an average decline of 0.11%.

While this serves as a general tendency rather than an absolute rule, notable sell-offs have occurred following hotter reports. On February 12, 2025, a core inflation rise of 0.4% coincided with a 1.9% hourly drop for Bitcoin, while last month’s 0.3% reading resulted in a 1.4% hourly loss.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Hold $73,510?

Thus far, key support levels have held. BTC trades at $74,398 on Binance, sitting roughly 1.2% above the low recorded on Sunday.

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin remains positioned below its primary exponential moving averages (EMAs), which place greater weight on recent price activity. The 200-day EMA sits at $76,481, while the 50-day EMA is located at $79,128.

• Resistance: Immediate overhead resistance rests at $5,599 (Monday’s high), followed by the 200-day EMA at $76,481 and the 50-day EMA at $79,128.
• Support: Downside support is found at $74,177 (Tuesday’s low), followed by Sunday’s low of $73,510 and the August 21 low of $73,027.

CPI outcome	What it could mean	Level to watch
Core at 0.1%	Hike odds ease, room for a bounce	$75,599, then $76,481
Core at 0.2%	In line, the market likely stays cautious	A range between $73,510 and $75,599
Core at 0.3% or higher	December hike locked in	$73,510, then $73,027

For market participants monitoring the Bitcoin CPI reaction, the opening hour following the 8:30 a.m. publication remains critical. Across 20 of the past 24 releases, Bitcoin ultimately continued moving in the same direction over the subsequent 24 hours as it did in that opening sixty-minute window.

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